12.06.2006

Iran's Influence in Iraq

The Baker-Hamilton Report says that Iran's influence in Iraq is strong and dangerous.

Really? But why?

Oh yeah. Iraq is mostly Shia. Iran is mostly Shia. And basically everybody else around is Sunni. It's only natural that Iran would respond to the people of Iraq after the removal of the Sunni Iraqi Dictator.

It's unfortunate that Republicans couldn't piece this together four years ago. Heckuva job, guys!

The Baker-Hamilton Report is basically a whack-job. Disregard it. Bush & Cheney will move forward in the direction they want. This report provides fodder for all sides of the debate, and that's about it. If your agenda involves staying the course or blaming the Administration, then this report will help. If you want an argument for bringing the troops home, then don't look here for anything.

Let's take a look at a few of the Report's suggestions:

Talk to Iraq's neighbors? That's not gonna happen, and there's no guarantee that it would improve anything anyway. Iran holds the cards here, and they would like us to sink our resources in Iraq forever. The complete collapse of Iraq would leave plenty of oil-rich land right on its border, so that's another reason why I don't see Iran providing much help.

Engage the Arab-Israel peace process? Oy. I'm not sure if I want Bush and Cheney working on that one right now. We don't need a world war...

Provide more training to Iraqi police? Good idea. But haven't we tried this one already? Yes, we did. And the police decided to seek revenge for past transgressions instead of working toward an equitable security situation. The Report suggests that we should embed our best troops within the Iraqi Police forces, and that may accelerate the training. I think I'd rather see our best and worst troops just come home. If the police can't figure out how to do their jobs, then this country is about to fall to pieces no matter what we do.

President Bush needs to keep in touch with the Iraqi government? Have they just been sending post cards for the past 3 1/2 years? "Doin' Great! Wish You Were Here! Love, Iraq" Why the hell does it take a group of ten adults to tell the President to have frequent contact with the Iraq government?

This report just makes it clear to me: Find a way to get out now. The Kurds and Shia sit on the oil property, and they constitute a majority of the population. The Shia are minorities in the Muslim world, and they are NOT interested in finding compromise with the Sunnis. They are going to shit on them for as long as possible. Al Qaeda is Sunni, and they are going to come into Iraq and knock in the teeth of the Shia. The Kurds have no desire to be "united" with the rest of Iraq. This situation is going to boil over whenever we leave. No matter if it's twenty years from today. These people hold grudges for centuries. Let's just get the hell out now and do whatever we can to contain the fallout. That's the future. Accept it.

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