10.31.2006

TX-22



A lot of people have been talking about this Houston Chronicle article ( http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4296181.html ) that puts Sekula-Gibbs within striking range of Nick Lampson.  This point of contention here is the percentage of people supporting a write-in candidate (35%) against Nick Lampson (36%).  Of those supporting a write-in candidate, 75% will write Shelley Sekula Gibbs.  When asked to choose between Lampson and Sekula Gibbs (and not 'a write-in' candidate), people responded 52% Gibbs and 35% Lampson.  That's not good for Nick or TX Dems.

All is not lost for Lampson yet.  Tradesports has him around 66% likely to win.  RealClearPolitics (a right-leaning politico site) has this race going to Lampson.  I expect it will, too.  But if he loses, it will be no fault but his own.  I live in the heart of TX-22, and I have been inundated with Sekula-Gibbs literature.  I'm not sure if I received a single piece of mail from the Lampson campaign.  I've seen all of two Lampson commercials.  I've heard that Lampson has quite a bit of money for this campaign, but not much was spent to grab the attention of people in my demographic.

Gibbs race will be determined by GOP GOTV efforts and the ability of her supporters to use electronic voting machines.  And this is where I see the real problem for Gibbs.  I consider myself a computer whiz, and I was even a little confused in the voting booth yesterday.  One of the volunteers kept telling people in line that we should not press the big red button for help because it will lose our vote, but that we are supposed to press the big red button when we have reached the end of the ballot.  I'd assume that there are a lot of people having a difficult time navigating to the appropriate screens, especially when writing in the candidate's name.  (I'd also mention that the booths were full yesterday evening, and it appeared that everybody was taking a LONG time to complete the voting process.)

It will be interesting to see where this election goes.  If Lampson wins, he needs a plan to win the hearts and minds of the people.  And I doubt that will even be possible in Sugarland.

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